نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 بخش آمار، دانشگاه شیراز
2 بخش علوم زمین، دانشگاه شیراز
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In this paper, a semi-Markov model is applied for description the seismicity patterns in the region within (27 °, -30 °) latitude and (55 °, 58 °) longitude, which includes some portion of the Kerman and Hormozgan provinces. The classification of states of the model is based on magnitudes of earthquakes. Because of the features of Weibull distribution and earthquake characteristics, it is assumed that the crossing times between states are Weibull. Some numerical estimates for the semi-Markov kernel and the mean recurrence times of earthquakes have been presented based on the past information. A new computational method which is on the basis of the inverse Laplace transform approximation have been introduced for estimating the expected number of earthquakes, distribution of hitting time of strongest earthquakes and transition functions. Estimation of above functions are rapid by using this method, with short processing times. The past history has been used for prediction while the probabilities of future earthquakes with different magnitudes and time intervals have been calculated. The obtained results are consistent with the latest recent earthquake in this zone, which shows the validity of the employed model.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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