A Model for Market Share Forecasting in Duopoly market

Document Type : Original Paper


1 Department of Industrial Management, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Interdisciplinary Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3 School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, College of Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran


Either Producers’ competition or consumers’ manner, influence on variation of market structure. To investigate this variation, a comprehensive model is required that covers all attitudes and interactions of both sides. Review the studies in literature cleared that the previous works have focused on modeling of duopoly or oligopoly markets, based on limited features and aspects. For instance, only one of the subjects of these markets such as consumer behavior, producer behavior, firms R&D game and firms competition by pricing or advertising has been studied. Hence, to investigate the markets perfectly and to study the integration among the elements of them, a comprehensive model is needed. In introduced such model in this study, we used theory of differential game for modeling of firms competition, approach of agent-based modeling and learning models for modeling of consumers behaviors. By developed model, it is feasible to investigate the market shares variations of two firms in a duopoly influenced by firms’ policies or consumers’ behaviors. The results of running the model in a numerical example demonstrate that firstly, learning models of consumers influence on firms’ market shares. Secondly, by even very partial simplifying in the sub model of firms competition, considerable and sensitive differences occur in the pattern of market shares.


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